Fallzahl Standort Koblenz: 2 (Warnstufe Gelb bis 30.04.2021) Maßnahmenkonzept

Mathematical Models for COVID-19 Dynamics


Mathematical Models for COVID-19 Dynamics
Zeitraum: 01.02.2020 - 15.04.2021
Status: laufend

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemics in 2020 we are working together with colleagues from all over the world on mathematical models and simulations for the dynamics of the disease spread.

Colleagues in Wroclaw, Poland (Prof. Tyll Krueger and his group) initiated the MOCOS-group focussing on stochastic microstructure simulation for the spread of COVID-19.
The group in Koblenz in concentrating on deterministic models based on differential equations.

Currently we are investigating the effects of different variants on the SARS-COV-2 virus on the dynamics


The time-dependent local reproduction number for the counties in Northern Rhineland-Palatinate (graph by Silja Mohrmann)

local reproduction number for northern Rhineland-Palatinate (graph by Silja Mohrmann)

and the effect of removing contact restrictions over Christmas (graph by Moritz Schäfer)

Effect of relaxing restrictions over Christmas and subsequent lockdown. (graph by Moritz Schäfer)




Beteiligte Einrichtungen



  • ECMI Mathematics of the COVID-19 crisis: IN THE EYE OF THE STORM, webinar 29.04.2020 -> youtube
  • Workshop on Epidemic Modeling, webinar 08.-10.06.2020 Mumbai India
  • Focusing on Mathematical Models & Analysis on COVID-19 Crisis, webinar 17.06.2020 -> youtube

  • Modelling in Epidemiology: Challenges in Existing Data, webinar 22.09.2020
  • Models and Simulations for COVID-19 in Germany, African Math Seminar 10.03.2021 -> youtube
  • Media coverage
    Süddeutsche Zeitung (17.03.2020, 28.03.2020)
    DIE ZEIT (21.03.2020)
    Rhein-Zeitung (25.03.2020, 22.04.2020, 23.11.2020)
    Rheinpfalz (24.03.2020, 22.04.2020, 10.12.2020
    SWR-Rundfunk (various),
    SWR-Fernsehen (10.12.2020)
    Mittelrhein-TV (youtube link) and others


Götz, Thomas; Bock, Wolfgang; Rockenfeller, Robert; Schäfer, Moritz (2021): A two-strain SARS-COV-2 model for Germany - Evidence from a Linearization. In: Arxiv.

Wijaya, Karunia Putra; Ganegoda, Naleen; Jayathunga, Yashika; Götz, Thomas; Schäfer, Moritz; Heidrich, Peter; , (2021): An epidemic model integrating direct and fomite transmission as well as household structure applied to COVID-19. In: J.Math.Industry. S. 1-26.


Wijaya, Karunia Putra; Ganegoda, Naleen; Jayatunga, Yashika; Götz, Thomas; Bock, Wolfgang; Schäfer, Moritz; Heidrich, Peter (2020): A COVID-19 epidemic model integrating direct and fomite transmission as well as household structure. In: medRxiv.

Götz, Thomas; Heidrich, Peter (2020): COVID-19 Disease Dynamics in Germany: First Models and Parameter Identification. In: medRxiv.

Bock, Wolfgang; Adamik, Barbara; Bawiec, Marek; Bezborodov, Viktor; Bodych, Marcin; Burgard, Jan Pablo; Götz, Thomas; Krueger, Tyll; Migalska, Agata; Pabjan, Barbara; Ozanski, Tomasz; Rafajlowicz, Ewaryst; Rafajlowicz, Wojciech; Skubalska-Rafajlowicz, Ewa; Ryfczynska, Sara; Szczurek, Ewa; Szymanski, Piotr (2020): Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail. In: medRxiv.

Götz, Thomas (2020): First attempts to model the dynamics of the Coronavirus outbreak 2020. In: Arxiv.

Götz, Thomas; Heidrich, Peter (2020): Early stage COVID-19 disease dynamics in Germany: models and parameter identification. In: Journal of Mathematics in Industry. Nr. 10.

Heidrich, Peter; Schäfer, Moritz; Nikouei, Mostafa; Götz, Thomas (2020): The COVID-19 outbreak in Germany – Models and Parameter Estimation. In: Communication in Biomathematical Sciences . Bd. 3. Nr. 1. S. 37-59.

Götz, Thomas; Mohrmann, Silja; Rockenfeller, Robert; Schäfer, Moritz; Wijaya, Karunia Putra (2020): Calculation of a local COVID-19 reproduction number for the northern Rhineland-PalatinateA. In: Arxiv.


  • M.Sc. Thesis Mostafa Nikouei, University Koblenz, September 2020
  • M.Sc. Thesis Samuel Uram, University Koblenz, November 2020
  • M.Sc. Thesis Sungwoo Jung, in progress
  • M.Sc. Thesis Silja Mohrmann, in progress